Photo by Jon Anderson
Hoover City Schools flag
The Hoover City Schools flag flies in front of the Farr Administration Building, which houses the school system's central office in Hoover, Alabama, on Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2017.
The Hoover school system likely won’t need a third high school in the next 10 years, but it likely will need additional classrooms at four other schools in the next six years, officials announced at tonight’s Hoover school board meeting.
That includes:
- Sixteen additional classrooms at Berry Middle School, likely needed by August 2021 and costing an estimated $6 million
- Eight additional classrooms at Riverchase Elementary, likely needed by August 2021 and costing an estimated $3.5 million
- Eight additional classrooms at Gwin Elementary, likely needed by August 2024 and costing an estimated $5 million
- An unspecified number of additional classrooms at Bluff Park Elementary. That work, combined with renovation and demolition work associated with the old Bluff Park Community School, is estimated to cost $5 million.
Hoover City Schools Chief Financial Officer Tina Hancock presented the projected classroom needs to the school board following a presentation by a consultant who presented enrollment projections for each school over the next 10 years.
That study showed that the Hoover school system is projected to gain almost 1,500 students over the next 10 years.
Graphic courtesy of Hoover City Schools
Hoover school enrollment projections April 2018
Hoover school officials project the school system will add about 1,500 students over the next 10 years (from 2017 to 2027.)
The growth in student population in Hoover schools has tapered off over the last 10 years and been relatively stable over the past five years, even showing a decrease of 59 students in the 2015-16 school year, records show. But enrollment has started increasing again, and consultant Steve Salmon projected an average of 150 new students each year over the next 10 years.
Graphic courtesy of Hoover City Schools
Hoover schools enrollment growth 1998-2017
This chart shows the number of students added to Hoover City Schools each year, beginning in the fall of 1998.
Over the next 10 years, Bumpus Middle School is expected to gain the most students, adding a projected 378 students by August 2028. Other schools projected to see larger gains include Brock’s Gap Intermediate School (353 more students), Simmons Middle School (320 more students), Trace Crossings Elementary (313 students), Hoover High (282 more), South Shades Crest Elementary (243 more), Spain Park High (227 more), Gwin Elementary (187 more) and Berry Middle (109 more).
Meanwhile, Deer Valley Elementary is expected to lose 212 students, and Bluff Park Elementary is expected to lose 55 students (both due to rezoning that school officials said was needed to relieve overcrowded conditions).
The growth affects the various schools differently, depending on their capacity levels. After rezoning takes effect for the coming school year, Berry Middle School is projected to be at 94 percent of capacity, while Bluff Park Elementary is projected to be at 93 percent and Riverchase Elementary is projected to be at 91 percent.
Salmon said he generally considers an optimum enrollment level as being about 85 percent of capacity.
By 2027, Hoover High School is projected to be at 98 percent of capacity with 3,173 students, and Spain Park High School is projected to be at 89 percent of capacity with 1,853 students. However, school officials say they believe the creation of the Riverchase Career Connection Center, which will draw students from both high schools for part of the school day, will provide some relief for the two high schools.
Salmon took numerous factors into consideration when projecting enrollment numbers, including birth rates in Jefferson and Shelby counties, building and home sale trends, and future development plans.
Data from the city of Hoover indicates there are 6,784 housing units that have been approved in Hoover but not yet built.
Over the past 10 years, development in Hoover has slowed down, averaging 414 housing units per year. That compares with an average of 753 housing units per year from 1998 to 2007, Salmon said.
Graphic courtesy of Hoover City Schools
Hoover building permits 1995-2017
The number of building permits issued in Hoover has decreased over the past decade, with an average of 414 building permits issued per year from 2008 to 2017, compared to an average of 753 per year from 1998 to 2007.
Hoover’s population growth also has slowed down significantly. From 2000 to 2010, the city’s population grew 30 percent from 62,742 people in 2000 to 81,619 people in 2010. From 2010 to 2015, the city gained only 3,229 more residents, representing a 4 percent growth in population, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
$91 million in projected needs
In addition to the $19.5 million in construction costs associated with classroom additions at Berry, Riverchase, Gwin and Bluff Park and renovation and demolition costs at the old Bluff Park Community School, Hancock tonight also presented a long list of school system needs costing another $72 million. All together, projected additional needs for the next six years total more than $91 million, she said.
And that assumes the city does not annex any additional land or allow developers to move planned home sites, or that the Legislature does not give school employees another pay raise, Hancock said. There are still more factors that are beyond the school system’s control that could change future needs, she said.
Some of the other projected costs include paving projects, roofing projects, technology replacement, a scheduled increase in debt payments, salary increases to better retain support staff, salaries for employees at the new Riverchase Career Connection Center, and additional money for mental health support of students.
School board President Earl Cooper said those are a list of needs, not wants. “All the needs are essential to meeting the current needs and expectations of the community,” he said.
If all of those $91 million worth of projects are completed over the next six years and revenues remain flat, the school system’s reserve fund would fall from $121 million in 2018 to $29 million in 2024, Hancock said.
Graphic courtesy of Hoover City Schools
Hoover City Schols reserve projections April 2018
Hoover school officials are projecting the school system's reserve fund will fall from $121 million in fiscal 2018 to $29 million in fiscal 2024 if all projected additional needs are funded and revenues do not increase.
The state requires that school districts keep at least one month’s worth of operating expenses in reserves, and $29 million would give Hoover only 2.5 months of revenue in reserves, Hancock said. Murphy said Hoover schools do not want to get into a situation where the state has to step in due to financial difficulties.
This shows that any cuts to the school system’s revenues could have a significant impact on the school district, she said.